Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Expected points and expected wins come from the pre-match betting odds with the bookmaker margin removed. Like every figure here they are recorded outcomes: they do not establish decision accuracy or anything about a referee's intent. Small samples produce extreme rates, so treat anything under 15 games cautiously.

Across the 23 current referee and club outcome tests, the smallest adjusted q-value is 0.094. None is below 0.05, so no referee's record here is statistically distinguishable from chance at the usual threshold. That is not the same as proving every effect is zero.

Sources

• El Colegiado, La Liga refereeing data (matches, odds, cards, penalties; CC BY-NC 4.0 and CC BY-SA 4.0, with data from football-data.co.uk)
• El Colegiado, methodology
• RFEF CTA, current referee list
• football-data.co.uk, La Liga results and pre-match odds
• Wikipedia, Clásico match reports and cup results (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Penalties from 2022/23 come from Wikipedia match reports and may miss some.